OIL FUELLED the 20th century—its cars, its wars, its economy and its geopolitics. Now the world is in the midst of an energy shock that is speeding up the shift to a new order. As covid-19 struck the global economy earlier this year, demand for oil dropped by more than a fifth and prices collapsed. Since then there has been a jittery recovery, but a return to the old world is unlikely. Fossil-fuel producers are being forced to confront their vulnerabilities. ExxonMobil has been ejected from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, having been a member since 1928. Petrostates such as Saudi Arabia need an oil price of $70-80 a barrel to balance their budgets. Today it is scraping along at just $40.

　　石油是20世纪的主要能源——不管是汽车、战争，还是经济、地缘政治。如今，在遭遇能源冲击后，全球能源加速转型，新秩序逐渐形成。今年以来，新冠疫情重创世界经济，石油需求下降五分之一有余，价格一落千丈。而后，尽管世界经济有所恢复，但退回旧秩序显然不太可能。化石燃料生产商被迫之下只能正视自身的不足。从1928年起，美孚石油就一直是道琼斯工业平均指数的计算指标，如今也遭出局下场。只有石油价格稳定在70-80美元/桶的区间时，沙特等石油国家才能平衡预算，但如今的石油价格仅勉强达到40美元/桶。

　　There have been oil slumps before, but this one is different. As the public, governments and investors wake up to climate change, the clean-energy industry is gaining momentum. Capital markets have shifted: clean-power stocks are up by 45% this year. With interest rates near zero, politicians are backing green-infrastructure plans. America’s Democratic presidential contender, Joe Biden, wants to spend $2trn decarbonising America’s economy. The European Union has earmarked 30% of its $880bn covid-19 recovery plan for climate measures, and its president, Ursula von der Leyen, used her state-of-the-union address this week to confirm that she wants the EU to cut greenhouse-gas emissions by 55% over 1990 levels in the next decade.

　　石油价格此前也曾一度暴跌，但这次不同以往。随着民众、政府和投资方逐渐认识到气候变暖的重要性，清洁能源行业越发强势。资本市场开始转变：清洁能源题材股票今年上涨了45%。政治家顶力支持绿色基础设施建设计划，给出了近乎为零的利率。美国民主党总统候选人乔·拜登(Joe Biden)提出拨款2万亿美元用于美国节能减排。欧盟指定8880亿美元新冠疫情经济恢复方案中的30%用于改善气候方面，在本周，欧盟主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩发布国情咨文演说，明确表示希望十年后，欧盟的温室气体排放量能在1990年的基础上减少55%的排放。

　　The 21st-century energy system promises to be better than the oil age—better for human health, more politically stable and less economically volatile. The shift involves big risks. If disorderly, it could add to political and economic instability in petrostates and concentrate control of the green-supply chain in China. Even more dangerous, it could happen too slowly.

　　21世纪的新能源体系有望比石油时代更加完善——更有利于人体健康，也更有益于政治和经济稳定。但是，转型也蕴含着巨大的风险。毫无章法的转型反而会加剧石油国家的政治经济动荡，并将绿色供应链的控制权转交给中国。更危险的便是，转型速度太过迟缓。

　　Today fossil fuels are the ultimate source of 85% of energy. But this system is dirty. Energy accounts for two-thirds of greenhouse-gas emissions; the pollution from burning fossil fuels kills over 4m people a year, mostly in the emerging world’s mega-cities. Oil has also created political instability. For decades petrostates such as Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, with little incentive to develop their economies, have been mired in the politics of handouts and cronyism. In an effort to ensure secure supplies, the world’s big powers have vied to influence these states, not least in the Middle East, where America has roughly 60,000 troops. Fossil fuels cause economic volatility, too. Oil markets are buffeted by an erratic cartel. Concentration of the world’s oil reserves makes supply vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. Little wonder that the price has swung by over 30% in a sixth-month period 62 times since 1970.

　　如今，化石燃料最高占到占整个能源供给的85%，但这个体系并不环保。化石燃料占到温室气体排放总量的三分之二，化石燃料燃烧过程中产生的污染每年造成400万人死亡，主要出现在新兴国家的超大型城市。同时，石油还造成了政治动荡。几十年来，委内瑞拉和沙特阿拉伯等石油国家一直在利益交换和贪腐结党营私的政治怪圈中泥潭中挣扎，无心发展经济。为了确保能源供给，世界强国争先恐后地向石油国家施加影响，尤 其是在中东地区，美国更是布下约六万兵力。化石燃料还会造成经济动荡。石油市场饱受阴晴不定的卡特尔集团的冲击。加之世界石油储备位置高度集中，能源供应也极易受到地缘政治的影响。这么一看，1970年以来，石油价格半年内价格波动高达30%的情况曾发生62次也不足为奇了。

　　A picture of the new energy system is emerging. With bold action, renewable electricity such as solar and wind power could rise from 5% of supply today to 25% in 2035, and nearly 50% by 2050. Oil and coal use will drop, although cleaner natural gas will remain central. This architecture will ultimately bring huge benefits. Most important, decarbonising energy will avoid the chaos of unchecked climate change, including devastating droughts, famine, floods and mass dislocation. Once mature, it should be more politically stable, too, because supply will be diversified, geographically and technologically. Petrostates will have to attempt to reform themselves and, as their governments start to depend on taxing their own citizens, some will become more representative. Consuming countries, which once sought energy security by meddling in the politics of the oil producers, will instead look to sensible regulation of their own power industry. The 21st-century system should also be less economically volatile. Electricity prices will be determined not by a few big actors but by competition and gradual efficiency gains.

　　新能源体系的蓝图正在绘就。在大胆的举措之下，太阳能、风能等可再生能源的供给比例有望从现在的5%上升到2035年的25%，到2050年时甚至可能达到近50%。石油、煤炭的消耗量最终会下降，不过相对清洁的天然气仍将保持主要地 位。这样的能源结构最终将带来巨大的好处。更重要的是，去碳化的能源会消除全球变暖局势恶化所带来的种种恶果，如严重干旱、饥荒、洪涝和大量流民。新能源体系一旦成熟后，能源供给的地域和技术变得多样化的同时，也能使得政治更为稳定。石油国家不得不进行改革，这些国家的政府更依赖于税收，一些国家也会变得更加民主。能源消费国为了保障能源安全，曾经一度干涉石油生产国的内政，而在新能源体系下，这些国家的政府会转而对自身能源产业进行有效监管。同时，21世纪新体系在经济方面也会更加稳定。电价不再由个别行业巨头定夺，而取决于行业竞争和效益递增。

　　Yet even as a better energy system emerges, the threat of a poorly managed transition looms. Two risks stand out. Autocratic China could temporarily gain clout over the global power system because of its dominance in making key components and developing new technologies. Today Chinese firms produce 72% of the world’s solar modules, 69% of its lithium-ion batteries and 45% of its wind turbines. They also control much of the refining of minerals critical to clean energy, such as cobalt and lithium. Instead of a petrostate, the People’s Republic may become an “electrostate”. In the past six months it has announced investments in electric-car infrastructure and transmission, tested a nuclear plant in Pakistan and considered stockpiling cobalt.

　　更完善的能源体系就在眼前，但杂乱无章的过渡期可能带来的危险也不容忽视。风险主要表现为两类。首先，中国在关键部件和新兴技术制造研发上的主导优势，很可能会一度获得对全球能源体系的巨大影响力。目前，中国企业生产了全球72%的太阳能部件、69%的锂电池，以及45%的风力涡轮机，同时还控制了大部分清洁能源关键金属(比如钴、锂)的精炼加工技术。这个国家虽然不是石油国家，但很可能成为一个“电力国家”。过去半年里，中国宣布将投资电动车基础设施建设以及电动车变速箱生产，同时在巴基斯坦的一家核电站进入试运行阶段，并考虑储备钴。

　　China’s leverage depends on how fast other economies move. Europe is home to giant developers of wind and solar farms—Orsted, Enel and Iberdrola are building such projects around the world. European firms are leading the race to cut their own emissions, too. America’s trajectory has been affected by the rise of shale oil and gas, which has made it the world’s largest oil producer, and by Republican resistance to decarbonisation measures. If America were to act on climate change—with, say, a carbon tax and new infrastructure—its capital markets, national energy laboratories and universities would make it a formidable green power.

　　中国的优势取决其他经济体的行动速度。欧洲拥有多家大型风能及太阳能发电厂开发商——丹能(Orsted)、意大利国家电力公司(Enel)、西班牙伊维尔德罗拉公司正在全球有建设项目。此外，欧洲企业自身也是节能减排的排头兵。美国方面，页岩油气的出现改变了能源格局，使其登上世界最大油类生产国的宝座，而共和党的阻挠也让美国成为了节能减排路上的一大阻力。如果美国将就全球变暖开始行动——比如，颁布碳税和新建基础设施——那么，在其资本市场、国家能源实验室和大学的共同努力下，美国将成为一个可畏的清洁能源国。

　　The other big risk is the transition of petrostates, which account for 8% of world GDP and nearly 900m citizens. As oil demand dwindles, they will face a vicious fight for market share which will be won by the countries with the cheapest and cleanest crude. Even as they grapple with the growing urgency of economic and political reform, the public resources to pay for it may dwindle. This year Saudi Arabia’s government revenue fell by 49% in the second quarter. A perilous few decades lie ahead.

　　另一个风险表现在石油国家的转型上。石油国家贡献了全球8%的GDP，人口数接近9亿。石油需求的萎缩必将带来市场份额的惨烈竞争，优胜者必将是拥有最便宜、最干净原油的国家。就算他们想努力开展日益紧迫的经济政治改革，能支撑改革成本的公共资源可能却逐渐减少。今年，沙特政府第二季度总收入下降了49%。未来的几十年不容乐观。

　　Faced with these dangers, the temptation will be to ease the adjustment, by taking the transition more slowly. However, that would bring about a different, even more destabilising set of climate-related consequences. Instead, as our special report in this issue explains, the investments being contemplated fall drastically short of what is needed to keep temperatures within 2°C of pre-industrial levels, let alone the 1.5°C required to limit the environmental, economic and political turmoil of climate change. For example, annual investment in wind and solar capacity needs to be about $750bn, triple recent levels. And if the shift towards fossil-fuel-free renewable energy accelerates, as it must, it will cause even more geopolitical turbulence. The move to a new energy order is vital, but it will be messy.

　　面临如此之多的威胁，世界各国很可能想通过放慢转型节奏来缓解调整幅度。然而，这恐将在气候层面上带来一系列不同以往，破坏力更甚的后果。此外，正如本期特别报道所指出的，目前酝酿中的投资还完全不足以将温度变化控制在前工业阶段气候的2°C以内，更别说要控制在1.5°C以内才能降低气候变暖对环境、经济、政治破坏了。具体说来，风能、太阳能方面的年投资需达到7500亿美元才能实现目标，但目前水平仅达到要求的三分之一。大势所趋之下，随着化石燃料加速减少、可再生能源快 速增长，政治动荡也难免更加频繁。向新能源秩序转型的确至关重要，但过程恐难一帆风顺。