11

　　A.They termed the second prediction model.

　　B.They observed ground tilt before earthquakes.

　　C.They learned lessons from major earthquakes.

　　D.They evacuated people from the city in time.

　　12

　　A.He believes the third model will be combined with the first one.

　　B.He couldn't agree with the second model any more.

　　C.He has some reservations about all the three models.

　　D.He obviously doesn't favor any of the three models at all.

　　Passage One

　　Now, you've been reading articles about thetremendous damage done to life and property byearthquakes. That's why seismologists have beenworking so hard to develop methods of earthquakeprediction. (9) We can now predict earthquakefairly well but the predictions only locate potential areas of danger. They don't predict thespecific time and location at which an earthquake is likely to occur. Today I want to introduceyou to three prediction models that have been developed.

　　(l0) The first prediction model looks along earthquake faults, those cracks in the Earth'scrust, to find what are known as seismic gaps. Seismic gaps are places where the fault hasshown little or no seismic activity for a long time. This theory postulates that such places aredue for a major shock.

　　The second model relies on phenomena—like ground tilt. (11) Using long cylindrical tubescontaining water, observers noted that ground tilt tended to occur before major earthquakes.That led them to correctly predict the big Haicheng (HI CHUNG) quake of 1975—the firstsuccessful earthquake prediction scientists have ever made. A million people were evacuatedfrom that Chinese city before the earthquake struck. Unfortunately, this method hasn'tworked consistently, so we can't say it's been perfected.

　　The third model is based on the theory that major earthquakes closely follow a series of minorones. Starting with the measurements and timing of the smaller quakes, a complex formulacalculates the "times of increased probability" of a much larger quake. Right now, this method,like the first method, cannot predict specific time and places, but that may change as it isfurther developed.

　　(12) For the moment, none of these models can predict with reasonable levels of confidence.

　　9. What can we know about the earthquake prediction according to the speaker?

　　10. What is the earthquake fault?

　　11. Why could the scientists correctly predict Haicheng quake of 1975?

　　12. What is the speaker's attitude toward the three prediction models?

　　文章一

　　到目前为止，大家看到过很多介绍地震给人们的生命及财产带来的惨重损失的文章。这也是地震学家一直致力于大力研发地震预报方法的原因。我们现在已经可以准确地预测到地震，但只能找到可能发生地震的危险区域，不可预测地震发生的具体时间和地点。今天我想向大家介绍三种地震预测方法。第一种方法是根据地震断层——地壳裂缝——寻找所谓的“地震空区”。地震空区是通过地震断层找到的长时间没有发生地震活动的地区。这种预测方法认为地震空区将是大地震的主震区。第二种预测方法根据地表现象判断，比如地表倾斜。研究人士通过使用装有水的圆形试管观测到，地表倾斜往往是大地震的前兆。这种方法成功预测了1975年的海城地震。这也是科学家第一次成功地预测到地震。地震发生前，一百万人从这座中国城市中撤离。但不幸的是，这种方法的有效性并不具有一贯性，因此我们不能说这是一种完美的方法。第三种方法基于一个理论，这个理论就是大地震总是紧密跟随在一些小震之后。这种方法用预测小地震的震级和发生时间确定的复杂公式来测算大地震发生的最可能的发生时间。现在这种方法和第一种方法一样，无法预测地震的具体时间和地点。但是随着进一步的研究情况可能会发生改变。就目前而言，没有哪种模型可以很有信心地，合理地做出地震预测。

　　9.根据演讲内容，关于地震预测我们可以了解到什么?

　　10.地震断层是什么?

　　11.1975年科学家们为何准确地预测到了地震?

　　12.演讲者对三种地震预测方法的态度是什么?

　　参考答案：

　　【小题9】D

　　【小题10】B

　　【小题11】B

　　【小题12】C

　　习题解析：

　　【小题9】短文开头部分提到，地震学家一直致力于大力发展地震预报方法，已经可以很好地预测地震，但只能找到潜在的危险地区，不可预测地震发生的具体时间和地点。选项 D 与原文相符，故选 D。

　　【小题10】短文在提到地震断层的时候，紧随其后就进行了解释，即地壳裂缝，故选 B。

　　【小题11】在解释第二种预测模型时，观察家指出，地面倾斜往往会发生在大地震之前。正因为如此，科学家于 1975年第一次成功预报了地震。选项 B 与原文相符，故选 B。

　　【小题12】短文最后提出，就目前而言，没有哪种模型可以很有信心地，合理地做出地震预测。选项 C 表明作者持有保留态度，故选 C。