至关重要的术语：#breakeven inflation rate#

　　Ten-year inflation “breakevens”, the difference in annual yields between consumer-price-inflation-protected bonds and the normal sort, recently crossed 2%. However, this is probably still lower than the Federal Reserve would like, both because the measure of inflation to which its 2% target applies usually lags behind the consumer-price index, and because it wants to overshoot its target to make up for lost ground超额完成目标以收复失地. For now that lost ground is growing. Today’s CPI data for December are likely to show paltry可忽略不计的;微小的;微不足道的;无价值的 annual price rises of about 1.3%.

　　The breakeven inflation rate通胀盈亏平衡点 represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_10YEAR) and 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_10YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 10 years, on average.

　　通胀预期=国债收益率- TIPS收益率。 例如,如果五年国债收益率为3%,五年TIPS收益率为1%,那么未来5年通胀预期每年约2%。 这种差值常常被称为“breakeven” inflation rate。

　　美国统计数据中，有一个数据叫做“盈亏平衡通胀率(Breakeven Inflation Rate)”。 这个数据的来源很简单，同期限的国债收益率减去通胀保值债券(TIPS)的收益率。 比方说，美国十年期盈亏平衡通胀率=美国十年期国债收益率-十年期通胀保值债券。

　　通货膨胀保值债券(Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities，简称TIPS)又称通胀保值债券，是美国财政部发行的与消费者价格指数(CPI)挂钩的债券，始于1997年。

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