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　　Japan's once enviable jobless rate will soar to double-digit levels if—and the warning is a big one—firms opt for drastic Western-style layoffs to boost profits. While Japan's life-time employment system is visibly unravelling, many economists still doubt whether a scenario of soaring joblessness will occur, given that economic incentives to slash payrolls clash with social and political pressures to save jobs. A kinder, gentler approach to restructuring would soften the social instability many fear would result from doubling the jobless rate, already at a record high.

　　Critics believe it would also cap gains in profit margins and stifle economic vitality, especially in the absence of bold steps to open the door to new growth, industries. Some economists believe different methods of counting mean Japan's jobless rate is already close to 7 per cent by United States standards, not that far from the 7.8 per cent peak hit in the US in 1992 when it began to emerge from a two-year slump.

　　【参考译文】

　　如果日本各公司效仿西方国家，通过大幅度裁员来增加利润，日本一度令人羡慕的低失业率将飙升至两位数, 目前形式已经十分严峻。日本的终生雇佣制度明显正在解体, 但是刺激经济需要裁员, 而社会和政治上却要求保留工作岗位，两者互相冲突，因而许多经济学家仍无法断定日本是否会出现失业率急剧上升的局面。许多人担心失业率已经达到历史最高点，如果再增长一倍，就会导致社会不安定，因而以较为温和的方式调整经济,才可以缓解这个问题。评论家们认为这还会限制利润增长，抑制经济活力，如果不去大胆采取措施引进增长型产业，情况会更糟。一些经济学家认为，用不同的方法计算，按照美国标准，日本的失业率已接近7%，与1992年美国7.8%的最高失业率相去不远，而当时美国已开始走出两年的经济衰退期。

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