人社厅公布“关于2021年度专业技术人员职业资格考试工作计划及有关事项的通知”，翻译资格考试上半年考试在6月19、20日，考试形式为电子化考试(即机考)。

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　　Five market axioms that can no longer be relied upon

　　不再靠谱的5个投资假设

　　Investors will have to grapple with once-unthinkable economic and market trends as they set about fine-tuning their portfolios next year. Where they end up will depend on five factors that are growing less stable by the day.

　　投资者在明年着手调整投资组合时，将不得不应对曾经无法想象的经济和市场趋势。他们最终如何配置资产，将取决于日趋不稳定的五个因素。

　　Market sentiment has improved in recent weeks as trade tensions between China and the US have de-escalated, while the US labour market has again outperformed expectations — and there are short-term signs of some bottoming out of Europe’s economic cycle. With that, US stock indices have reached new highs while both bonds and currency markets have been relatively calm.

　　近几周来，随着中美贸易紧张缓解，市场情绪有所改善，同时美国劳动力市场的表现再次超出预期，还有短期迹象表明，欧洲经济周期在一定程度上触底反弹。于是，美国股指创下新高，而债券和汇率市场相对平稳。

　　Whether this performance will hold beyond the short term requires the revival of five assumptions that underpin most longstanding investment approaches.

　　这种表现能否延续至超越短期时间框架，将需要长期支撑大多数投资思路的5个假设恢复生命力。

　　First, that globalisation carries on expanding markets and delivering efficiency gains. Second, that emerging economies will continue to catch up with their more developed counterparts, led by those pursuing reforms. Third, that robust liquidity will anchor well-functioning markets. Fourth, that policy effectiveness in developed markets will limit the global economy’s “downside”. And finally, that politics and governance will support market-based systems and the global rule of law.

　　首先，全球化继续让市场扩大并提高效率。第二，新兴经济体将继续追赶那些较为发达的经济体，领跑的是那些推行改革的新兴经济体。第三，强劲的流动性将支撑运作良好的市场。第四，发达市场的政策有效性将限制全球经济的下行风险。最后，政治和治理将支持基于市场的体系和全球法治。

　　Each tenet is subject to considerable uncertainty, adding to the need to review medium-term investment approaches on account of accelerating technological innovations, climate change and demographic trends.

　　上述每个假设都面临相当大的不确定性，同时鉴于技术创新加快、气候变化和人口结构趋势，人们更有必要审视中期投资思路。

　　Notwithstanding the easing in trade tensions, it is far from clear that the process of economic and financial globalisation will continue. The possibility of years of deglobalisation — where barriers reduce the free flow of trade and investment — remains substantial. National politics are becoming more inward-looking by the day, growth continues to disappoint, and the inequalities of income, wealth and opportunities fuel popular backlashes.

　　虽然贸易紧张局势有所缓和，但对于经济和金融全球化进程会否持续，前景远非清晰。去全球化持续多年——其间各种贸易障碍减少贸易和投资的自由流动——的可能性仍然很大。如今，国家政治变得日益内向，增长继续令人失望，而收入、财富和机会的不平等状况助燃民众反弹。

　　This process of deglobalisation limits the scope for emerging countries to use the international economy to turbocharge their development efforts. It also increases the risk of dislocations for a financial system that is built for deeper cross-border connectivity.

　　这种去全球化进程限制了新兴国家利用国际经济加速其发展努力的余地。它也加大了为深化跨境连通性而打造的金融体系发生错位的风险。

　　At a time when the “circuit breaker” effectiveness of central banks is waning after too many years of excessive reliance on unconventional monetary measures, this increases the likelihood of poor economics swaying politics and, in return, messier politics contaminating economics. This phenomenon has already been amply illustrated not only in advanced countries (eg Brexit), but also via spillovers to some emerging economies.

　　央行多年来过度依赖非常规货币措施，导致其作为“断路器”的有效性逐渐减弱，这增加了糟糕经济状况影响政治的可能性，而反过来，更混乱的政治也会搞乱经济。这种现象不仅已经在发达国家(例如英国退欧)中得到充分展示，而且还体现于对某些新兴经济体产生的溢出效应。

　　Away from traditional savings, the implied distortions to finance have so far favoured investors. Witness what has happened to three factors that drive most asset allocation models: returns, correlations and volatility.

　　除了传统的储蓄之外，对金融的隐含扭曲迄今有利于投资者。看看驱动大多数资产配置模型的三个因素——回报率、关联度和波动性——发生了什么。

　　The traditional-inverse relationship between the prices of German and US government bonds (“risk-free” assets) and those of stocks (riskier assets) has been turned on its head for much of this year. The result is not only actual or near-record highs for key equity indices but also, with bond prices still relatively high, some $12tn of debt trading at negative yields.

　　在今年大部分时间里，德国和美国政府债券(“无风险”资产)价格与股票(较高风险资产)价格之间的传统反向关系被扭转。结果不仅是关键股指达到或逼近纪录高位，而且由于债券价格仍然相对较高，约有12万亿美元债券的收益率是负值。

　　It has also played out in the volatility space, where unusually subdued levels have tended to be the norm, encouraging even more risk-taking. And when we have had “illiquidity in the midst of liquidity” — to use the words of Robert Koenigsberger, the CIO of hedge fund Gramercy — it has tended to be contained. The one major exception to this was the market disruption a year ago that caused the Federal Reserve policy U-turn at the beginning of 2019.

　　这也体现在波动性方面——异常低的波动水平近来成为常态，鼓励了甚至更多的冒险。当我们遇到“流动性当中的流动性不足”时——这是对冲基金Gramercy的首 席投资官罗伯特•科尼格斯伯格(Robert Koenigsberger)说的话——它往往会受到遏制。一个重大例外是一年前发生的市场动荡，它导致美联储(Federal Reserve)在2019年初政策大转向。

　　Given valuations and volatility levels, investors face increasingly asymmetrical risks, where there is a wide gap between their potential gains and losses. They would be well advised to test their longer-term investment approaches for adverse and unstable asset class correlations, volatility spikes, liquidity dislocations and greater political risks.

　　考虑到估值和波动水平，投资者面临日益不对称的风险——他们的潜在回报和损失之间存在巨大差距。他们最好测试自己的较长期投资方法，考虑不利和不稳定的资产类别关联度、波动性突然飙升、流动性错位以及更大的政治风险。

　　Conditions now call for a bigger longer-term move to investing based on “factors”, which are disaggregated drivers of asset prices, and some tail hedging (protecting your portfolio against big adverse market moves), with more input for behavioural science and political analysis.

　　现在的情况要求以更大幅度和更长期的时间跨度转向基于“因素”(资产价格的分散驱动因素)的投资，再加上一些尾部对冲(保护你的投资组合免受重大不利市场变动的影响)，以及行为科学和政治分析方面的更多输入。

　　Investors could consider a gradual move to asset allocations that involve a further shift away from public stocks and bonds to bespoke credit structures and other ways of gaining more direct access to real economic activity. With that, cash may play a larger structural role in mitigating risks.

　　投资者可以考虑逐步调整资产配置，包括进一步从公开上市股票和债券转向定制信贷结构，以及其他更直接参与实体经济活动的方法。因此，现金可能在缓解风险方面发挥更大的结构性作用。

　　Most investment approaches are not wired for a world of deglobalisation, non-convergence of emerging economies, rising illiquidity, ineffective monetary policy and less respect for the global rule of law. Yet the possibility of each has increased.

　　大多数投资方法不适用于一个去全球化的世界，在这个世界里，新兴经济体不再趋同、流动性日益紧张、货币政策无效，全球法治不太受尊重。然而这些可能性都有所加大。

　　It would be unwise to just throw out longstanding investment approaches that have served investors well. But it would be equally unwise to avoid difficult discussions on how to evolve them, given that so many economic, financial and political “unthinkables” have already become facts.

　　就这么抛弃为投资者带来丰厚回报的长期投资方法是不明智的。但是，鉴于许多“无法想象的”经济、金融和政治事件已经成为事实，回避就如何发展投资方法进行艰难讨论同样是不明智的。

　　　考后关注：2021上半年翻译资格考试成绩查询时间  合格标准  2021上半年CATTI考后资格审核时间及地区

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