How localisation can solve climate change

逆全球化是不是解决气候变化问题的良方

　　Over the past two centuries, millions of dedicated people – revolutionaries, activists, politicians, and theorists – have yet to curb the disastrous and increasingly globalised trajectory of economic polarisation and ecological degradation. Perhaps because we are utterly trapped in flawed ways of thinking about technology and economy – as the current discourse on climate change shows.

　　在过去的两百年，数以百万的有志之士——革命者、活动家、政治家和理论家——一直想法遏制因日益全球化而造成经济两极分化和生态退化的灾难性发展轨迹，但至今徒劳无功。或许是因为我们对技术和经济的认识陷入一种有缺陷的思维方式，正如当前关于气候变化的论述所显示的那样。

　　Rising greenhouse gas emissions are not just generating climate change. They are giving more and more of us climate anxiety – public concern over climate change in the UK, for example, is at a record high. Doomsday scenarios are capturing the headlines at an accelerating rate. Scientists from all over the world tell us that emissions in 10 years must be half of what they were 10 years ago, or we face apocalypse. School children like Greta Thunberg and activist movements like Extinction Rebellion are demanding that we panic. And rightly so. But what should we do to avoid disaster?

　　温室气体排放的不断增加不仅导致气候变化，让越来越多的人焦虑不安，例如，英国公众对气候变化的担忧达到了创纪录的高度。世界末日般的景像正以越来越快的速度登上新闻头条。全世界科学家告诉我们，未来10年内的碳排放量必须是10年前的一半，否则我们将面临文明的末日。像在全球发起关注气候变化的瑞典少女格力达‧桑贝格(Greta Thunberg)这样的学生和像“灭绝叛乱”(Extinction Rebellion)这样的激进运动发出的警世之言，就是要求我们人类能够对未来感到恐慌不安。这种警世是对的，不是危言耸听。但是人类又可以做些什么来避免这场气候变化带来的灾难呢?

　　Most scientists, politicians, and business leaders tend to put their hope in technological progress. Regardless of ideology, there is a widespread expectation that new technologies will replace fossil fuels by harnessing renewable energy such as solar and wind. Many also trust that there will be technologies for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and for “geoengineering” the Earth’s climate. The common denominator in these visions is the faith that we can save modern civilisation if we shift to new technologies. But “technology” is not a magic wand. It requires a lot of money, which means claims on labour and resources from other areas. We tend to forget this crucial fact.

　　大多数科学家、政治家和商界领袖都倾向于把希望寄托于技术进步。不管意识形态如何，人们普遍期望新的科技将以可再生能源，如太阳能和风能等，来取代造成气候暖化的罪魁祸首，即化石燃料。许多人还相信，科学家将发明新的技术能去除大气中的二氧化碳，甚至创建“地球工程”来改善气候。这些愿景的共同点是，相信如果人类能够采用新的技术，就能拯救人类现代文明。但“技术”并不是一根可以点石成金的魔杖。还需要大量的资金，也就是说，人类需要从其他领域获得劳动力和资源。但我们往往会忽略这个关键事实。

　　The cost of going green

　　环保的代价

　　As much as 90% of world energy use comes from fossil sources. Meanwhile in 2017, only 0.7% of global energy use derived from solar power and 1.9% from wind. So why is the long-anticipated transition to renewable energy not materialising?

　　全球能源至今90%仍来自化石燃料。在2017年，全球只有0.7%的能源来自太阳能，1.9%来自风能。那么，人们期待已久的向可再生能源的转型为何没有实现呢?

　　One highly contested issue is the land requirements for harnessing renewable energy. Energy experts have estimated that the “power density” – the watts of energy that can be harnessed per unit of land area – of renewable energy sources is so much lower than that of fossil fuels that to replace fossil with renewable energy would require vastly greater land areas.

　　一个争议很大的问题是生产可再生能源需要大量土地。能源专家估计，可再生能源的“功率密度”即单位土地面积能量瓦数传输速度，是远低于化石燃料，因此用可再生能源取代化石能源将需要更大的土地面积。

　　In part because of this issue, visions of large-scale solar power projects have long referred to the good use to which they could put unproductive areas like the Sahara desert. But doubts about profitability have discouraged investments. A decade ago, for example, there was much talk about Desertec, a 400bn euro (£364bn) project that crumbled as the major investors pulled out, one by one.

　　部分因为这个原因，长期以来人们所设想的大规模生产太阳能计划，是充分利用诸如撒哈拉沙漠这类寸草不生的地区。但是，因为怀疑是否能盈利而妨碍了投资。例如，10年前，有很多人在谈论一个投资4000亿欧元(3640亿英镑)在撒哈拉沙漠生产太阳能然后输往欧洲的计划“沙漠科技”(Desertec)，但因太昂贵和不切实际，主要的投资者一个接一个地撤出，计划最终破产。

　　Today the world’s largest solar energy project is Ouarzazate Solar Power Station in Morocco. It covers about 25 sq km (9.6 sq miles) and has cost around $9bn (£7.5bn) to build. It is designed to provide around a million people with electricity, which means that another 35 such projects – that is, $315bn (£262bn) of investments – would theoretically be required to cater to the population of Morocco. We tend not to see that the enormous investments of capital needed for such massive infrastructure projects represent claims on resources elsewhere – they have huge footprints beyond our field of vision.

　　当今，全球最大的太阳能工程是摩洛哥的瓦尔扎扎特太阳能电站，占地约25平方公里，造价约90亿美元。这个工程将为摩洛哥大约100万人提供电力，这意味着理论上还需要另外35个如此规模的太阳能工程，即3150亿美元的投资，才能满足摩洛哥全部人口的能源需求。我们往往忽视这样一个事实，建造如此大规模的基础设施所需要投入的巨额投资，也是对其他资源的巨大消耗，其产生的巨大碳足迹已超乎我们的想像。

　　The cheapening of solar panels in recent years is to a significant extent the result of shifting manufacture to Asia. We must ask ourselves whether European and American efforts to become sustainable should really be based on the global exploitation of low-wage labour, scarce resources and abused landscapes elsewhere.

　　太阳能电池板的售价近年不断下调在很大程度上是因为制造业转移到亚洲的结果。我们必须反躬自省，欧美国家为实现可持续发展所作的努力，是否真的应该让全球其他地方付出代价?去利用这些国家的廉价劳动力，去开采其稀缺资源和滥用他们的土地?

　　Also, we must consider whether renewable energy sources are really carbon free. Wind turbines and nuclear power remain critically dependent on fossil energy to produce, install and maintain. And each unit of electricity produced by non-fossil-fuel sources displaces less than 10% of a unit of fossil-fuel-generated electricity. At the current rate, the renewable power revolution is going to be very slow.

　　另外，我们还必须考虑可再生能源是否真的是零碳排放。风力发电机和核能电厂的生产、安装和维护仍然严重依赖化石能源。而且，每单位非化石燃料发电所产生的电力只能替代不足10%的每单位化石燃料的发电。以目前的速度，可再生能源革命将非常缓慢。

　　Meanwhile, our atmospheric CO2 concentrations continue to rise. Because this trend seems unstoppable, many hope to see extensive use of technologies for capturing and removing the carbon from the emissions of power plants and factories.