More than 25 million years ago, India, once a separate island on a quickly sliding piece of the Earth’s crust, crashed into Asia. The two land masses are still colliding, pushed together at a speed of 1.5 to 2 inches a year. The forces have pushed up the highest mountains in the world, in the Himalayas, and have set off devastating earthquakes.

　　2500多万年前，印度还是一个快速滑动的板块上的独立岛屿，它与亚洲大陆发生了碰撞。这两个板块仍在继续相撞，每年以1.5到2英寸(约合3.81厘米)的速度相互挤压。这些力量令喜马拉雅山脉形成世界最高的山峰，并引发灾难性的地震。

　　Experts had warned of the danger to the people of Katmandu for decades. The death toll in Nepal on Saturday was practically inevitable given the tectonics, the local geology that made the shaking worse and the lax construction of buildings that could not withstand the shaking.

　　数十年来，专家一直警告加德满都人民要注意这种危险。鉴于地质构造、令地震震动加剧的地质情况，以及建筑物的构造不严谨、抗震能力差，尼泊尔在周六出现的惨重伤亡实际上是不可避免的。

　　GeoHazards International, a nonprofit organization in Menlo Park, Calif., that tries to help poorer, more vulnerable regions like Nepal prepare for disasters, had noted that major earthquakes struck that region about every 75 years.

　　设在加州门洛帕克的非营利组织国际地质灾难协会(GeoHazards International)是一家试图帮尼泊尔等较为贫穷、脆弱的地区为应对灾难做准备的机构。该机构指出，每隔75年，这里就会发生一次大地震。

　　In 1934 — 81 years ago — more than 10,000 people died in a magnitude 8.1 earthquake in eastern Nepal, about six miles south of Mount Everest. A smaller quake in 1988 with a magnitude of 6.8 killed more than 1,000 people.

　　81年前的1934年，在尼泊尔东部距离珠峰大约6英里(约合10公里)的地方发生8.1级地震，共有1万余人丧生。1988年，共有逾1000人在一次规模较小的6.8级地震中丧生。

　　Brian Tucker, president and founder of GeoHazards, said that in the 1990s, his organization predicted that if the 1934 quake were to happen again, 40,000 people would die because of migration to the city where tall, flimsily built buildings would collapse.

　　国际地质灾难协会的总裁兼创始人布莱恩·塔克(Brian Tucker)说，上世纪90年代，他所在的组织曾预测，倘若1934年的地震再次发生，就会造成4万人死亡——这是因为人口在向这座城市迁移，高大而脆弱的建筑物将会坍塌。

　　In an update just this month, GeoHazards wrote, “With an annual population growth rate of 6.5 percent and one of the highest urban densities in the world, the 1.5 million people living in the Katmandu Valley were clearly facing a serious and growing earthquake risk.”

　　国际地质灾难协会在本月的更新信息中写道，“这里的年均人口增长率为6.5%，而且城市密度位于世界最高之列;在这种情况下，住在加德满都谷的150万人明显面临着严重而且越来越大的地震风险。”

　　The organization helped set up a local nonprofit to continue preparations, including the reinforcement of schools and hospitals.

　　该组织协助成立了一个本地非营利组织，以继续进行准备工作，其中包括学校和医院的加固。

　　Saturday’s earthquake occurred to the northwest of Katmandu at a relatively shallow depth, about nine miles, which caused greater shaking at the surface, but at magnitude 7.8, it released less energy than the 1934 quake.

　　周六的地震发生在加德满都西北地区，震源相对较浅，约为9英里，所以地表的震动更加强烈。但是由于震级为7.8级，所以释放的能量比1934年的少。

　　Roger Bilham, a professor of geological sciences at the University of Colorado who has studied the history of earthquakes in that region, said that the shaking lasted one to two minutes, and the fault slipped about 10 feet along the rupture zone, which stretched 75 miles, passing under Katmandu.

　　科罗拉多大学(University of Colorado)地质学教授罗杰·比尔汉姆(Roger Bilham)曾研究过该地区的地震历史，他说，震动持续了一到两分钟，断层沿着断裂带滑动了约10英尺，断裂带长达75英里，从加德满都穿过。

　　The earthquake “translated the whole city southward by 10 feet,” Dr. Bilham said.

　　这场地震“让整个城市向南移动了10英尺”，比尔汉姆博士说。

　　Aftershocks as large as magnitude 6.6 have occurred mostly to the northeast of Katmandu.

　　最高达6.6级的余震多数发生在加德满都的东北部。

　　It is possible that the Saturday quake is a preface to an even larger one, but Dr. Bilham said that was unlikely.

　　周六的地震有可能只是更大地震的前奏，但比尔汉姆说可能性并不大。

　　Katmandu and the surrounding valley sit on an ancient dried-up lake bed, which contributed to the devastation. “Very, very soft soil, and the soft soil amplifies seismic motion,” Dr. Tucker said.

　　加德满都和周围的山谷坐落在一个古老而干涸的湖床上，这也是该地区在地震中受到严重损毁的原因之一。“非常非常软的土壤，松软的土壤放大了震动，”塔克博士说。

　　Steep slopes in the area are also prone to avalanches like the one that the quake triggered on Mount Everest on Saturday.

　　该地区的陡峭山坡也很容易发生雪崩，就像周六的地震在珠穆朗玛峰上引发的雪崩一样。

　　Katmandu is not the only place where a deadly earthquake has been expected.

　　并非只有加德满都预计会发生致人死亡的地震。

　　Dr. Tucker said Tehran; Haiti; Lima, Peru; and Padang, Indonesia, were similarly vulnerable. In those places, nearby tectonic faults are under strain, and building standards and disaster preparations are seen as inadequate.

　　塔克说，德黑兰、海地、秘鲁利马，以及印度尼西亚巴东同样容易发生地震。这些地方附近的构造断层都处在紧张状态，但建筑标准和灾难预防则似乎不够充分。

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