2017年翻译考试初级笔译模拟题：多边合作

　　【英译汉】

　　Multilateral Cooperation Is Key to Resolving Global Financial Imbalances

　　The current surge in private capital flows has occurred in the midst of much-improved domestic policies and global financial conditions compared with those that prevailed during the capital flows surge of the l990s. 1 This time around, governments have so far generally managed to avoid excessive expansion of aggregate demand, large current-account deficits, and sharp appreciations of the real exchange rate. However, the policy agenda for managing capital flows is broad and complex, and considerable challenges remain.

　　Progress has been made in simplifying the very complex web of capital controls and exchange rate restrictions imposed by many countries. 2 But the gradual opening of capital accounts must be accompanied by a further strengthening of macroeconomic policies, the development of local capital markets and the institutions needed to regulate them, and the establishment of a system of risk management robust enough to respond to the needs of a more flexible exchange rate and open capital account. 3 Liberalization of the capital account once implemented is difficult to reverse. A return to capital controls should be seen only as a policy of last resort, to be used to dampen excessive exchange rate volatility or to moderate large inflows of capital when other policies, such as interest rates and intervention in foreign exchange markets, prove fruitless.

　　Despite the considerable improvement in policies in recent years, the surge in capital flows still presents substantial risks to developing countries. Future risks to economic and financial stability will likely take a different form and character4 than those encountered in the past - and may expose institutional and macroeconomic weaknesses that cannot be anticipated at this juncture. One warning sign of potential troubles has been the surge in portfolio inflows that has been associated with a dramatic escalation of stock market prices and valuations in many developing countries5, particularly in Asia, raising the risk of asset price bubbles. Other signs of possible trouble are appreciated exchange rates and current account deficits in some Eastern European countries. The impact of individual risks could be magnified if several were to occur simultaneously.

　　Developing-country policies must be reinforced by renewed international efforts to promote stability and maintain a financial environment conducive to a balanced expansion and deployment6 of capital flows in developing countries. One major risk to stability is the growing imbalance in global payments and the associated market anxiety/ about the possibility of a disorderly adjustment of the imbalance through sudden changes in exchange rates and global interest rates. Such changes could destabilize and disrupt international financial markets, which would cause all countries to suffer.

　　Although a coordinated policy of intervention in foreign currency markets is neither desirable nor feasible, a degree of multilateral cooperation is needed to address the current global imbalances. That approach, based on the mutual interests of deficit and surplus countries, should reflect the structural asymmetry between international reserve currencies and other currencies. At its center must be consensus on a blend of adjustments8 adequate to rebalance global aggregate demand without causing a global recession. Ordinarily, policy coordination among key players9 is unnecessary, because floating exchange rates, accompanying l0 monetary policies, and independent central banks do their job to facilitate adjustment to any shocks hitting the world economy. 11 But when the sustainability of the sources of financel2 for global payment imbalances is in doubt, as it is at present, multilateral cooperation to prevent sudden and disorderly market reactions becomes highly desirable13, especially if the growing global imbalances create pressure for protectionist trade policies in some countries.

　　Developing countries, in particular, have much to gain from multilateral cooperation, and much to lose from its absence14, and they would suffer disproportionately if instability were induced and a disorderly unwinding of global financial imbalances ensued. The world economy is moving toward a multipolar international monetary system in which the monetary and financial policies of the United States, Euro Area, Japan, and several key emerging market economies, including China, all exert substantial influence. Policymakers in emerging market economies should therefore strive to strengthen institutions and promote policies and mechanisms that will improve their ability to navigate in a world of increasingly integrated and interdependent financial and production systems. 15

　　【参考译文】

　　多边合作是解决全球金融失衡的关键所在

　　与20世纪90年代资本流动激增的情况相比，当前私人资本流动的激增伴随着国内政策和全球金融状况的大幅改善。在这一过程中，各国政府迄今都尽量避免出现总需求过度扩张、经常项目巨额赤字和实际汇率大幅升值的情况。但是，管理资本流动的政策议程既广泛，又复杂，依然存在重大挑战。

　　许多国家的资本管制和汇率限制错综复杂，在简化这些措施方面，已经取得了进展。但是，在逐步开放资本项目的网时，必须进一步加强宏观经济政策，发展本国资本市场和市场监管的相应制度，建立一个有力的风险管理体系，应对汇率制度更灵活、资本项目更开放所带来的需求。资本项目一旦开放，就难以逆转。重返资本管制应该被看作最后的政策举措，只是用来抑制汇率的过度波动，或者是在利率和干预外汇市场等政策证明无效时，用来调节资本的大量流入。

　　虽然近年来在政策方面进行了较大改进，资本流动的激增依然给发展中国家带来了重大风险。与过去遇到的风险有所不同，经济和金融稳定今后面临的风险很可能改头换面，也可能暴露出现在还无法预料的制度和宏观经济的薄弱环节。可能出现麻烦的一个警报信号是，随着证券投资流入的激增，许多发展中国家，尤其是亚洲的股票市场价格和估值大幅攀升，从而增加了资本价格出现泡沫的风险。其它可能出现麻烦的迹象是，东欧一些国家的汇率升值，经常项目赤字增加。如果几种风险同时出现，则单个风险的影响就会放大。

　　国际社会应该继续努力，推动发展中国家的各项政策，以实现稳定，保持一个有利于发展中国家以均衡的方式扩大和利用资本流动的金融环境。影响稳定的一个主要风险是全球支付体系的不断失衡，市场随之会担心失衡现象有可能带来通过突然改变汇率和全球利率的无序调整。这种变化可能会造成国际金融市场的不稳定和混乱，结果将给所有国家带来不利影响。

　　虽然采取协调政策对外汇市场进行干预既不可取，也不可行，但是要解决目前的全球失衡问题，进行一定程度的多边合作还是必要的。这种做法基于逆差国和顺差国的共同利益，应该反映国际储备货币和其它货币之间的结构性不对称。其核心问题在于如何形成共识，采取综合调整措施，重新平衡全球总需求，同时避免引发全球经济衰退。一般而言，关键国家之间进行政策协调并无必要，因为浮动汇率、配套的货币政策以及独立的中央银行等因素，都能够针对世界经济所遭受的冲击而进行调整。然而，如果解决全球支付失衡的融资渠道的可持续性受到质疑，正如当前形势一样，那么开展多边合作，预防突然、无序的市场反应，就是非常可取的举措，尤其是考虑到不断增加的全球失衡给一些国家带来了贸易保护主义政策的压力。

　　对于发展中国家来说，开展多边合作，它们尤其可以从中获益良多;反之，则受损多多。如果经济不稳定，全球金融失衡出现无序发展，这些国家就会遭到更巨大的重创。世界经济正在走向一个多极化的国际货币体系，其中美国、欧元区、日本以及包括中国在内的几个重要新兴市场经济体的货币和金融政策，都在发挥着重大影响。因此，新兴市场经济体的政策制定者应该努力强化制度，推动有利的政策机制，在世界金融和生产体系一体化程度和相互依存度越来越高的情况下，提高自身的参与能力。