The mortgage-rescue plan

　　抵押贷款救援计划

　　Will the bail-out work?

　　救援计划会奏效吗?

　　Oct 3rd 2008 | NEW YORK, WASHINGTON, DC

　　From Economist.com

　　The bail-out becomes law after the House reverses its rejection. Money markets call for urgent attention

　　救援计划在众议院由否决变为通过后成了法案。货币市场亟需重点关切

　　“CRISES have the power to unite us in strange ways.” So said Steny Hoyer, the Democratic majority leader in the House of Representatives, in an article on Friday morning that pleaded for passage of the $700 billion bail-out plan. United they were. The House voted by a huge 263-171 margin for the bail-out, a dramatic reversal of the 228-205 rejection on Monday. On Friday October 3rd 172 Democrats backed the bill, up from 140; 91 Republicans did so, up from 65. As the Senate had already approved the bill, it was immediately signed by George Bush.

　　“金融危机使我们以一种陌生的方式团结到一起。”美国众议院多数党(民主党)领袖Steny Hoyer在周五早上一篇请求国会通过7000亿救援方案的文章里如是说。他们确实团结到了一起。众议院以263对171的大规模票数差距通过了救援计划，这与周一的228对205否决形成了鲜明的对比。在周五(10月3日)的投票中，172位民主党议员赞成，比周一上升了32人;91位共和党人赞成，比周一上升了26人。因为参议院已经批准了此项议案，所以很快就会被布什签署(使之生效)。

　　The rejection on Monday was caused by conservative Republicans who said it was socialism, by Liberal Democrats who said it did not do enough for poor people, and fears by many that voters would fire them for bailing out Wall Street. The rejection triggered a plunge in stocks and a scramble to sweeten the bill. In the end numerous, mostly unrelated, items have been grafted on, from higher federal deposit-insurance limits to a tax exemption for wooden children’s arrows. The tide was turned because of that, nausea over market turmoil, news that non-farm employment sank by 159,000 in September (the steepest in five years) and because of furious business lobbying.

　　周一众议院的否决主要是由于两方面的原因，一是共和党保守派人士认为这是社会主义行为;二是民主党自由派人士认为此项方案对穷人帮助不足，并担心选民因为其拯救华尔街而抛弃他们。周一的否决引发了股市的暴跌并促使政府迅速修改美化此项法案。最终，许多不相关的条款被加入其中，从更高的联邦储户保险限制到儿童玩具工厂的免税措施。投票形势之所以改变，是因为众议员不堪市场混乱，非农劳动人口就业数九月下降159，000(这是五年来的最大降幅)的消息而且还有愤怒的商业团体游说的因素。

　　Now the real test comes: will it help? The Treasury is expected to take a week to set up the auctions for the first mortgage purchases, and the first purchases could therefore take place within weeks. Henry Paulson, the treasury secretary, could act sooner: he has the authority to buy mortgages from individual institutions or inject capital into them if they are nearing failure.

　　现在，真正的考验到来了：这个法案是否会奏效呢?财政部计划用一周的时间来准备安排第一笔购买抵押贷款资产的拍卖会，因此第一笔购买交易会在几周内完成。财长保尔森很快就会行动：他有权从私人机构购买抵押贷款资产或是给濒临倒闭的机构注资。

　　Speed is of the essence. Banks are loth to lend to each other, except at record punitive rates and for the shortest of periods. Most want their money back within a day. Massive liquidity injections by the Federal Reserve and other central banks have done little to unclog the pipes.

　　速度是极其重要的。银行间极其不愿意互相拆借，除非对方能够承受一个破纪录的惩罚性的利率以及最短的期限。许多银行希望他们借出的钱能够在一天内归还。美联储及其它央行的大规模流动性资金注入并未使市场流动性不足的情况改善多少。

　　Worse, the availability of short-term loans to companies is shrinking at an alarming rate. The market for commercial paper has shrunk by around $600 billion since last summer, with almost $100 billion of the reduction coming in the past week alone. This hurts companies large and small. General Electric has had to raise new capital partly because of funding concerns. Retailers report problems financing purchases of holiday-season inventories. The head of AutoNation, a car dealer, told CNBC that “banks were looking for every excuse to say no…We’ve gone from a credit crunch to a credit panic.” Firms say that some banks are trying to invoke “market disruption” clauses to cut credit lines or raise the fees for renewing them, leaving corporate treasurers unsure how long they can pay employees or buy raw materials.

　　更糟的是，公司可使用的短期贷款正在以惊人的速度下降。商业票据市场自去年六月以来萎缩了约6000亿美元，而仅在过去的一周里就减少了1000亿美元。这对大大小小的公司都有伤害。通用电器不得不筹集新的资金，部分原因就是由于对融资的忧虑。零售商也报出其在购买假日季节物品的融资上也有问题。汽车销售商AutoNation的老板告诉CNBC：”银行在寻找各种理由对你的贷款申请说‘不’…我们已经从信贷紧缩到信贷恐慌了。”银行在竭力引用”市场混乱 “的条款来减小信贷或是提高费率以使其恢复元气，但是这使得企业财务主管不能确定他们多久才能给雇员发工资或是多久才能去购买原材料。

　　The pain is reaching municipalities and states. Alabama’s Jefferson County is on the verge of bankruptcy. California’s governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, has reportedly given warning, in a letter to the Treasury, that his state is running out of cash to fund day-to-day operations and may need an emergency loan of $7 billion from the federal government.

　　这些状况已经波及各个州和自治市。阿拉巴马州的杰弗逊郡已经濒临破产。加州州长施瓦辛格据说已在一封给财政部长的信中发出警告：他的州维持日常运行的现金即将耗尽，需要从联邦政府紧急贷款70亿美元。

　　While the Troubled Asset Relief Programme, or TARP, may ultimately unfreeze the mortgage market, restore confidence to banks and restart lending, that may take too long for a far more pressing problem, the blockage in the money markets. Tellingly, the yield on short-term government debt-the most popular destination for investors seeking safety-barely budged after the vote. Bank-to-bank loan spreads fell only slightly. American stockmarkets gave up gains built up in the hours before the vote.

　　问题资产救援计划(TARP)可能最终会解困抵押市场，重塑银行信心并重新开始放贷，但是还需要很长时间来解决一个迫在眉睫的问题：货币市场的堵塞。非常说明问题的是，短期政府债券(投资者寻求安全的最流行的目的地)的收益在众议院表决后变化不大。银行间拆借利差只有略微下跌。美国股市最终将投票前数小时的积累的涨幅完全跌尽。

　　While the TARP may lift confidence, the timing and extent to which it boosts their capital will depend on the prices paid, which remain unclear. Moreover, the target is moving. Even if house prices stabilise soon, non-mortgage credit will go on deteriorating as the economy shrinks. Bank regulators will have their work cut out as failures mount among small and medium-sized lenders. More will seek sanctuary in the arms of stronger rivals. On Friday Wachovia threw itself at Wells Fargo, only four days after Citigroup had agreed to buy its banking operations in a government-backed deal. Citi threatened to sue.

　　在TARP可能提升信心的同时，它购买资本的时机和范围程度依赖于支付的价格，而这价格尚未明朗。此外，目标也在转移。即使房价很快企稳，非抵押信贷会随着经济下滑而继续恶化。随着倒闭风潮开始在小型和中型的银行(借贷机构)中蔓延，银行监管者将会停止他们的工作。许多这样的中小银行会投身于大型银行以寻求庇护。在政府的撮合下，花旗集团答应购买美联银行的银行业务部门四天后，美联银行将其卖给富国银行。花旗威胁将会提出诉讼。

　　The crisis is intensifying in Europe, where governments have been forced to prop up several banks in the past week. European leaders are due to meet this weekend to discuss forging a more co-ordinated response, possibly including a continent-wide bank-rescue fund. And doubts about solvency are spreading beyond banks. After a sharp drop this week in the share prices of large American insurers, such as MetLife and Prudential, they came under pressure to raise fresh capital as a bulwark against the storm.

　　欧洲的情况更糟。欧洲各国银行在上周被迫注资支持几家银行。欧洲几国领袖预定将在本周末会面商讨出台更加协调合作的应对措施，可能包括一个整个大陆范围的银行拯救基金。而对偿付能力的疑虑已经超出银行范畴，在其它金融机构也蔓延开来。在本周股价急剧下挫后，几家大型美国保险商，例如MetLife 和 Prudential迫于压力不得不募集新的资本作为防护堡垒来抵御风暴的袭击。

　　Until the TARP shows results, the pressure remains on the Federal Reserve to contain the crisis. Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman and the main driver behind the TARP’s creation, congratulated Congress for demonstrating the “government’s commitment to do what it takes to support and strengthen our economy”. His language was remarkably similar to what he used, as an academic, to describe Franklin D. Roosevelt’s attack on the Great Depression. Mr Bernanke made it clear that he included the Fed in that commitment: “We will continue to use all of the powers at our disposal to mitigate credit market disruptions and to foster a strong, vibrant economy.” The Fed has already expanded its balance sheet by around $600 billion since August, an amount not much smaller than the entire TARP, as it replaces evaporating private credit with central bank credit. The odds are high it will also cut its short-term interest rate, now 2%, to 1.5% either at or before its policy meeting at the end of October.

　　在TARP有效果前，美联储控制危机的压力依然非常大。作为TARP出台的主要推动者，美联储主席伯南克祝贺国会，因为这显示了”政府为此所付出的正是支持和加强我们的经济。”伯南克的这番言语颇似他以前作为学者时，形容富兰克林D.罗斯福总统抵御大萧条举措的论调。伯南克明确的是，他将美联储也置身这个”付出”之中：”我们会继续自行使用我们所有的权力来减缓信贷市场的瓦解，并培育出一个强壮的，充满活力的经济体。”自八月以来，美联储已将其资产负债表扩大了6000亿美元(这是一个比整个TARP计划小不了多少的数目)，这将会用中央银行信贷来代替消失的私人信贷。美联储在十月底的政策会上或之前，下调短期利率(从现在的2%调至1.5%)的可能性很高。

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