There is hope 希望仍在

　　Africa

　　There is hope Oct 9th 2008

　　From The Economist print edition

　　Despite the persistence of Africa’s natural and man-made horrors, the latest trend is cheeringly positive 天灾人祸不断 局势有望好转

　　UNTIL the past few weeks of global turmoil, Africa’s doughty band of boosters were feeling they at last had something to smile about. After four decades of political and economic stagnation that kept most of their 800m-odd people in poverty and gloom, the continent’s 48 sub-Saharan countries have been growing for the past five years at a perky overall rate of 5% or so. If they maintain this pace or even bump it up a bit, Africa still has a chance of taking off. Now, with commodity prices likely to fall, world markets sure to shrivel and Western aid set to plateau or even dip, Africa, though more isolated from the global economy than other parts of the world, is bound to suffer from its ill breeze. But maybe not as badly. Once described by this newspaper, perhaps with undue harshness, as “the hopeless continent”, it

　　could yet confound its legion of gloomsters and show that its oft-heralded renaissance is not just another false dawn prompted by the passing windfall of booming commodity prices, but the start of something solid and sustainable. Despite its manifold and persistent problems of lousy governments and erratic

　　climates (see article), Africa has a chance of rising.

　　经过了持续几周的全球动乱，致力于推动非洲发展的改革者们终于可以略展笑颜。政治，经济上40多年的停滞不前曾使非洲8亿的人民的人们陷入贫穷和黑暗，但最近5年来，48个撒哈拉以南的非洲国家正以5%的总体速率飞速发展。如果他们能使这一速率维持甚至略有提高，非洲将有望摆脱贫困。现今日用品价格有望下调，世界市场将必然走向萎缩，相应地，西方的援助也会趋于稳定，甚至有所下降。尽管与其他地方相比，非洲地区相对独立于全球经济，却也难免殃及池鱼。“无望的陆地”本报从前曾这样过于苛刻地描述过这片土地。但也许，现实并非如此糟糕，以至于会让许多持悲观态度的人会感到不解，并且不时显现的复苏迹象也不只是日用品价格飙升所带来的表面繁荣，这一切昭示着一个切切实实的开端。尽管不良政权和多变气候有其重重弊端，非洲仍有望崛起

　　A long way to go 长路漫漫

　　Pessimists have plenty of evidence to call on. There have been spurts of growth before, especially when commodity prices have risen sharply. But when those prices have fallen, growth has fizzled. Africa’s few recent successes tend to be set against a previous history of disaster. Ghana, for instance, is often cited as one of the most hopeful cases, but at independence in 1957 it was nearly as well off as South Korea;

　　now, despite its recent bounce, it is still some 30 times poorer in wealth per person. The lively growth in several other hopeful spots—for instance, Mozambique, Rwanda and Uganda—must likewise be set against the horrors of their quite recent past. In fact, the sole country in Africa with a record of consistently strong political and economic progress is Botswana.

　　悲观主义者仍可言之凿凿。过往的日子里，特别是日用品价格飙升之际，经济增长多是昙花一现。但一旦价格回落，这种涨势则不堪一击。然而，非洲近来为数不多的成功例子则与先前灾难历史形成鲜明对比。加纳，是一个人们乐于引用的希望之地，但是早在1957年这个国家宣布独立之时，它的富足程度就可比南韩，而现今，尽管近期经济局势略有反弹，但同比于韩国，国民人均财富仍缩水了30倍。另外几个国家的所谓“希望”，例如莫桑比克，卢旺达，乌干达，也只是与过往苦难形成的鲜明对比。实际上，唯一的一个保有政治经济上强有力持续增长的国家是博茨瓦纳。

　　Many basic indices remain grim. Africans’ lifespan is still declining, owing largely to the scourge of AIDS, 60% of whose worldwide victims are African. A recent World Bank paper was guarded as to whether the African surge would last. Most of the quicker growth, it notes, is due to soaring revenues enjoyed by just eight sub-Saharan African countries blessed with oil. A third of Africa’s countries—by far the highest proportion in any continent—are trapped in civil wars or cycles of violent unrest. The two biggest in area, Sudan and Congo, are ravaged by strife and misgovernment. Zimbabwe, once a jewel of southern Africa, is still a nightmare, despite a recent agreement to forge a government of national unity. The World Bank paper bemoans Africa’s standards of governance.

　　很多基本指标仍不容乐观。非洲的人均寿命仍在下降，很大一部分归因于艾滋病，这一疾病60%的受害者都来自非洲。一份最新的世界银行报表对于非洲的增长势头能否持续持谨慎态度。报表显示，高于平均速度的大部分增长只是得益于8个撒哈拉以南的产油国由于石油产出所带来的国民收入。三分之一的非洲国家(目前为止占所有大洲的最高比例)陷于内战和暴动的漩涡。两个最突出的例子，苏丹和刚果，被长年的战乱和暴政摧毁。津巴布韦，这个曾被称为南非宝石的地方，尽管最近达成一项致力于建立国家统一政府的协定，如今却也成了一场噩梦。这份世界银行的报表对于非洲标准的政府管理表示出悲观态度。

　　Perhaps even more worrying, in the past year or so, three of Africa’s leading countries have had heavy setbacks. Nigeria’s election was the shoddiest since the country’s return to civilian rule in 1999; Kenya, east Africa’s hub, succumbed to ethnic mayhem after a disputed poll; and South Africa, easily the sub-Saharan continent’s leading power in every way, producing one-third of its entire GDP, has entered an ugly phase of politics, authoritarian if not yet undemocratic, just when it should be setting an example of tolerant pluralism to the rest of Africa. The recent violence against black foreigners is a reminder that the bottom third of South Africans still face gnawing poverty.

　　但也许更令人担忧的是，大约在去年，非洲大陆的三个巨头都遭遇了严重倒退。自从1999年这个国家转变为文官统治以来，尼日利亚的大选遭遇了最严重的舞弊。肯尼亚，作为东非的轴心，在一次富有争议的选举之后经历了种族迫害。在各个方面作为撒哈拉以南领军国家的南非，国民生产总值占据整个GDP的三分之一，理应为其他非洲国家树立包容榜样，其政府却接近独裁的边缘。最近反对外国黑人的暴力事件提醒世人，三分之一的底层南非人民仍然面对着重重贫困。

　　All the same, the boosters’ case is stronger than before. Political freedom, however patchy, is commoner than it was a generation ago. Two-thirds of African countries now limit presidential terms; at least 14 leaders (with a few bad exceptions) have felt obliged to step down as a result. Multi-party systems, however fraught, are more usual; the notion of political accountability and choice is more widely

　　accepted. The media, partly because of the internet, are livelier. The latest index of African governance funded by Mo Ibrahim, a Sudanese-born telecoms mogul, suggests a general improvement.

　　与此同时，改革势头也更加明朗。政治自由尽管有待完善，却比上一代更加普遍。三分之二的非洲国家现在已经对总统任期加以限制。至少14位领导人被迫下野。多党制尽管情势紧张，却也普及更广。政治义务和选择权的观念更加深入人心。由于互联网的部分原因，媒体变得更加活跃。由Mo Ibrahim(出生于苏丹的电信巨头)资助设立的最新的非洲行政指数，表明了一种普遍的进步。

　　The presumption of state control under the rubric of “African socialism” (an illusory third way) has been junked. Most local leaders accept that Africa must join the global economy to prosper, however shaky it looks right now. The mobile-phone revolution has hugely helped Africans, especially poor peasants and traders. Banking systems are modernising and mortgages more readily offered to an emerging middle class. Businessmen around the world have been investing more, especially in Africa’s better-governed countries. Even those that lack natural wealth have grown a bit faster. The spectacular advent of China into Africa’s market is, on balance, a bonus.

　　非洲社会主义(不靠谱的第三种途径)红字下的国家统治假设已被证明是一堆垃圾。大多数地方领导人相信，尽管现在看起来局势不定，非洲繁荣离不开世界经济。手机革命大大帮助了非洲人民，特别是贫困的农民和商人。银行系统正处于现代化，信贷业务也对新兴的中产阶级更加开放。世界各地商人的投资力度也不断加强，尤其是对治理较好的非洲国家。即使是那些自然资源匮乏的国家增长速度也在加快。中国进军非洲市场，总的来说，利大于弊。

　　Another report, co-sponsored by the World Bank, gently dissents from the certitudes of the “Washington consensus” that pure free marketry could cure all, and that Africa must just open up to trade, tighten its fiscal strings and sell off the state. One size in varied Africa does not fit all. The rich world could, for instance, offer time-limited trade preferences.

　　同样由世行联合发起的另一项报告，则对“华盛顿共识”颇有微词，“共识”确信，纯粹的自由市场是一剂万能药，非洲应当实行贸易开放，加强财政紧缩，清偿国家。然而针对非洲国家的不同情况，不能一以概之，比如，富裕国家倾向于提供具有时限的贸易优先权。

　　Feel each stone as you cross the river 摸着石头过河

　　Other devices could help too. America’s Africa Growth and Opportunity Act of 2000 has spurred African exports by dropping American tariffs. Another promising new mechanism is the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, a voluntary code that a score of African countries have adopted, with governments and foreign firms accounting openly for their dealings—in contrast to mineral-rich Congo, whose government ludicrously claimed in 2006 to have received only $86,000 in mineral earnings. The creation of national savings funds in commodity-flush countries is another good idea. On the farming front, issuing individual land titles, no easy task in a continent where much land is still communally held, is another. Pragmatism often beats dogma.

　　其他的方法也会带来裨益。美洲的“非洲成长与机会2000年法案”，通过下调美洲关税刺激了非洲出口。另一个方案是“采掘行业透明度行动计划”，这是一项已有12个非洲国家参与的自愿履行的规则，政府与国外公司将公开交易，与富产矿产的刚果形成鲜明对比(该国可笑地宣称2006年的矿产收入只有$86,000。对于轻工业国家，国家储备基金的建立也不失为一个好主意。对于农业方面，将土地定位个人名下也是一个好办法。在一片土地共有的大陆上，似乎很难成事。现实总是会击败教条。

　　So Africa has a rare chance to break out of its poverty trap. It would be hard even if governments were honest and efficient. Sadly, most are still not. Amid all the grim drawbacks of climate, disease, illiteracy and ethnic division, bad and corrupt government is still by far the biggest. But the news overall is cheerier. And the rich world, troubled as it is, must never give up in its effort to help the poor one to stand on its own feet.

　　所以非洲现在有一个摆脱贫困陷阱的难得机会。即使对于一个诚信高效的政府，这一切仍是不易，更不要说，大多数政府并非如此。算上气候，疾病，文盲，种族分化种种不利，政府腐败仍是最大的弊端。但总体的消息还是令人鼓舞。而那些富裕的国家也有他们的烦恼，但他们绝不会放弃帮助贫困国家自力更生的努力。

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