Part Four Questions 21-35. (15 points)

　　Read the following passage and fill each gap with the best word (A, B, C or D).

　　Global Economic Outlook 2013

　　The global economy has yet to shake (21)………the fallout from the crisis of 2008-2009. Global growth dropped to almost 3 percent in 2012, which indicates that about half a percentage point has been shaved off the long-term trend (22)………the crisis emerged. This slowing trend will likely continue. Mature economies are still healing the scars of the 2008-2009 crisis. But unlike in 2010 and 2011, emerging markets did not pick up the slack in 2012, and (23)………do so in 2013. Uncertainty across the regions – from the post-election ‘fiscal debate’ question in the U.S. (24)………the Chinese leadership transition and reforms in the Euro Area – will continue to have global impacts in sluggish trade and tepid foreign direct investment.

　　Main results:

　　l Across the advanced economies, the Outlook predicts a 1.2 percent (25)………in 2013, compared to 1.1 percent in 2012. The slight uptick is largely due to Europe, which is expected to return to very slow growth of 0.3 percent after the -0.2 percent contraction in 2012. U.S. growth is (26)………to fall from 2.2 percent in 2012 to 1.6 percent in 2013.

　　l In the medium-term, the outlook expects the U.S. and other advanced economies to go some ways toward closing large output gaps –(27)………, the difference between current output and the level of output an economy can produce in a noninflationary way, given the size of its labor (28)………and its potential to invest in and create technological progress. The current output gap is a result of weak demand (29)………the 2008-2009 crisis. This development should allow the U.S. to average 2.3 percent annual growth during 2013-2018 before (30)………to 2.0 percent in 2019-2025. In the same two periods, Japan is expected to grow at 0.9 percent per annum.

　　l A more significant slowdown is expected for less mature (31)………over the next year – and beyond. Overall, growth in developing and emerging economies is projected to (32)………from 5.5 percent in 2012 to 5.0 percent in 2013, with growth falling in China from 7.8 to 7.5 percent and in India from 5.5 to 4.7 percent. From 2019-2025 emerging and developing countries are projected to grow (33)………3.3 percent.

　　l The long-term global slowdown we project to 2025 will be driven largely (34)………structural transformations in the emerging economies. As China, India, Brazil, and others mature from rapid, investment-intensive ‘catch-up’ growth to a more balanced model, the structural ‘speed limits’ of their economies are (35)………to decline, bringing down global growth despite the recovery we expect in advanced economies after 2013.

　　21. A. off B. away C. of D. down

　　22. A. when B. before C. after D. since

　　23. A. didn’t B. won’t C. doesn’t D. don’t

　　24. A. until B. by C. to D. but

　　25. A. growth B. decrease C. arise D. steady

　　26. A. hoped B. excepted C. expected D. doomed

　　27. A. however B. that is C. moreover D. roughly

　　28. A. power B. class C. group D. force

　　29. A. contributed to B. due to C. because D. causing

　　30. A. falling B. drop C. falls D. increasing

　　31. A. countries B. teams C. economies D. societies

　　32. A. drop B. rise C. fell D. level off

　　33. A. of B. by C. from D. at

　　34. A. with B. by C. of D. from

　　35. A. possible B. like C. likely D. impossible