女巫的超前思维

　　亲爱的经济学家：

　　Dear Economist，有一个关于古罗马末代君王塔尔坎(Tarquin)的传说。一位老女巫走到塔尔坎面前，提出以高昂的价格卖给他9本预言书。塔尔坎对这一提议不以为然。女巫烧毁了其中的3本书，然后提出以原价卖给他剩下的6本。塔尔坎再次拒绝了。

　　There is a legend about the last king of the Romans， Tarquin. An old witch came to Tarquin， and offered to sell him nine books of prophecy at an exorbitant price. Tarquin laughed at the offer. The witch burned three of the books， and then offered to sell him the remaining six for the original price. Tarquin refused again.

　　女巫又烧毁了3本，然后同样以最初9本的价格向塔尔坎出售剩下的3本。这一次，塔尔坎担心自己可能会错失一些宝贵的东西，于是以女巫索要的价格买下了剩余3本书。这反映了什么样的需求曲线呢?

　　The witch burned three more books and offered to sell Tarquin the three books that were left for the original price that she had demanded for nine. This time Tarquin was scared that he might be losing something precious， and bought the remaining three books for the price that the witch asked. What sort of demand curve is that?

　　克里斯。麦克马洪(Chris McMahon)通过电子邮件发送Chris McMahon， by e-mail亲爱的麦克马洪：Dear Mr McMahon，忘掉需求曲线吧;这是一个关于经济盈余分配的两方谈判。塔尔坎始终愿意出高价，但同时希望能够还价。女预言家("女巫"听上去让人不太舒服)则用限制供应的方法来应对，意在推升价格。

　　Forget the demand curve; this is a two-player negotiation over the division of economic surplus. Tarquin was always willing to pay a high price but hoped to get a bargain. The sibyl ("witch" is such an uncouth label) responded with a supply constriction designed to drive up the price.

　　塔尔坎可能会认为，这个女预言家只有一位竞争性买家，如果每位买家都只想要3本书的话，这将形成供过于求的局面。而一旦出现两位买家只有3本书可买的情况，塔尔坎明白，他正面临严峻的局面，因而抢先报出了价格。

　　Tarquin might have thought that the sibyl had just one rival buyer， and if each buyer wanted only one trilogy， that would be a supply glut. Once there was only one trilogy available for two buyers， Tarquin knew he was in a serious auction and made a pre-emptive offer.

　　还有一种可能性是，女预言家正在解决一个所谓的持久垄断的问题。塔尔坎知道，女预言家可能会以高价向他出售3本书，然后再回头以低价出售另外3本或6本。而通过烧毁6本书，女预言家让自己能够提出一个真正要不要随你的出价。这是一种超前思维，但话说回来，她本来就是在推销预言。

　　Another possibility is that the sibyl was dealing with the so- called durable monopoly problem. Tarquin knew that the sibyl might sell him an expensive trilogy， and then come back later with a cut- price offer to buy a second or third. By destroying two trilogies， the sibyl enabled herself to make a credible， take-it-or-leave-it offer. Forward-thinking stuff， but then， she was flogging prophecies.

　　英国最低工资减少工资差别

　　牛津大学(Oxford University)的一份报告显示，引入最低工资已导致薪资级别受到挤压，这“在消除工资差别，同时在影响对高技能的奖赏和激励。”

　　The introduction of the minimum wage has led to pay levels being compressed, “destroying differentials and removing rewards and incentives for improving skills”, according to a report by Oxford University.

　　英国零售商协会(British Retail Consortium)委托进行的这项研究显示，接待行业96%的员工以及零售和批发行业75%的员工拿到的都是最低工资，今年10月，英国最低工资将升至时薪5.35英镑至5.52英镑。

　　The study, commissioned by the British Retail Consortium, found that 96 per cent of workers in the hospitality industry and 75 per cent of retail and wholesale workers earned the minimum wage, which is due to rise from ￡5.35 to ￡5.52 an hour in October.

　　自1999年实行最低工资标准以来，英国最低工资已提高46%，为逾100万员工提供了经济安全保障。欧盟(EU)统计机构欧盟统计局(Eurostat)的一份报告显示，在20个欧盟成员国中，英国最低工资水平排名第三，几乎是美国联邦标准的两倍。

　　Britain’s minimum wage, which has risen by 46 per cent since it was introduced in 1999, provides a financial safety net for more than 1m workers. It is the third highest out of 20 European Union nations and almost twice the US federal level according to a report from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical arm.

　　英国零售商协会表示，低收入委员会(Low Pay Commission)确定最低工资水平的方法，应考虑到一个事实：即最低工资已成为数十万员工的工资标准，而非基本工资基数。

　　The BRC says the way rates are set by the Low Pay Commission should take into the account the fact that the minimum wage has become the norm rather than a basic pay floor for hundreds of thousands of workers.

　　英国零售商协会会长凯文?霍金斯(Kevin Hawkins)表示，遏制通胀因素的最低工资涨幅已开始影响到雇主创造新就业岗位的能力。英国零售商协会表示，低收入委员会不应“试图成为雇主和工会不同出价之间的裁判”，而是应以各行业薪资中值和生产率的变化为指引。

　　Inflation-busting rises have begun to undermine the ability of employers to create new jobs, says Kevin Hawkins, BRC director-general. The Low Pay Commission instead of “trying to act as a referee between conflicting bids from employers and unions” should be guided by movements in median wages and productivity in individual sectors, says BRC.

　　英国零售商协会警告称：“许多雇主，特别是那些在零售业等竞争激烈、普遍处于通缩市场上经营的雇主，发现他们的薪资结构受到了挤压。因此，那些出钱培训员工、支持员工再教育、并希望能够认可并奖励员工新增技能和技能提高的企业，无力做到这些。”

　　It warns: “Many employers, particularly those who operate in fiercely competitive and generally deflationary markets such as retailing, have seen their pay structures compressed. As a result, those who invest in training their staff and supporting further education and who want to be able to recognise and reward new and enhanced skills are un-able to do so.”

　　薪资福利专业机构IDS 2005年年底进行的一项研究显示，在引入最低工资制后，超市已削减了薪资等级的数量，在一家超市，已“引入了单一的副主管薪资等级”。

　　A study at the end of 2005 by IDS, the pay and benefits specialists, reported that supermarkets had reduced the number of pay grades and in one case had “introduced a single sub-supervisor grade” following the introduction of the minimum wage.

　　英国零售商协会表示：“如果最低工资继续以近来的平均速度增长，那么就业率将下降，雇主也会发现自己无力奖励技能高超的员工、保持薪资差距并提供宝贵的非薪资福利。包括零售业在内的多个行业已感受到这些影响。”

　　The BRC said: “If the minimum wage continues to grow at its recent average rate, employment will fall and employers will find themselves unable to reward skills, preserve wage differentials and provide valued non-wage benefits. These effects are already being felt in several sectors, including retail.”

　　然而，英国职工大会(TUC)秘书长弗朗西斯?奥格拉迪(Frances O’Grady)表示：“最低工资标准已发挥了作用，因为这个标准由低收入委员会确定，该委员会将雇主和工会代表组织在一起，讨论对英国经济最为有利的政策。用机械的指数来替代这一成功的合作过程，将是愚蠢的。”

　　Frances O’Grady, TUC general secretary, however, said: “The minimum wage has worked because the rate has been determined by the Low Pay Commission, which brings employer and trade union representatives to-gether to discuss what will work best for the UK economy. It would be foolish to replace this successful partnership process with a mere mechanical index.

　　“英国零售商协会一贯认为，对于零售业而言，最低工资标准的每一次提高都是一场灾难。而事实是，零售业的就业率已升至创纪录的水平。”

　　“The BRC has consistently predicted that every increase in the minimum wage will be a disaster for the retail sector. The truth is that employment in retailing has grown to record levels.”